The warning comes at a time when around 149 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa are already experiencing high levels of food insecurity, according to the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises.
- Country:
- Ghana
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is calling for urgent action as forecasts indicate that the current El Niño is likely to strengthen into one of the most powerful events recorded since 1950. The weather pattern could significantly affect rainfall across Africa, putting millions of people, farming communities and food systems at greater risk.
Different regions face different risks
As of July 2026, moderate El Niño conditions were present in the Pacific Ocean, with global climate models predicting further strengthening in the months ahead. Across Western and Central Africa, El Niño does not produce a uniform weather pattern, though many areas tend to experience below-average rainfall during the June to September rainy season, increasing the risk of reduced agricultural production.
In Eastern Africa, the effects vary sharply by location. Countries including South Sudan, Sudan, western Ethiopia, Uganda’s Karamoja region and Eritrea often receive less rainfall during their main growing season, leading to weaker harvests. The eastern Horn of Africa, which depends on October to December rains, frequently experiences above-average rainfall during El Niño years, raising the risk of severe flooding, displacement, crop damage, infrastructure losses and worsening food insecurity.
Southern Africa prepares for dry conditions
For Southern Africa, El Niño is closely associated with below-average rainfall between October and April. Since maize is the region’s main staple crop and is highly sensitive to drought, lower rainfall could reduce harvests during the 2026/27 season.
FAO noted that strong maize harvests recorded in parts of Southern Africa earlier in 2026 may help cushion regional cereal supplies, though prolonged dry conditions could still place pressure on food availability and agricultural incomes.
Early action can reduce future losses
FAO has been working with regional partners to improve preparedness before the impacts become severe. In July, the organisation joined an ENSO webinar organised by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD), where experts discussed the latest climate forecasts and their implications for agriculture, disaster management, water re
The agency says acting before disasters occur is far more effective than responding after communities have already been affected.
Support for vulnerable communities
To strengthen preparedness, FAO and the World Food Programme (WFP) have launched a joint Anticipatory Action Appeal seeking US$202 million to protect 8.8 million people across 22 countries, including 12 in Africa.
Planned interventions include early warning systems, cash assistance, distribution of drought-tolerant and flood-resistant seeds, livestock support, flood protection measures and improved water storage infrastructure.
FAO says lessons from its 2023–2024 El Niño response demonstrate that investing before a crisis delivers significant benefits, with every dollar spent on early action preventing several dollars in future humanitarian losses while helping communities better withstand climate shocks.
