Bitget UEX Daily｜Iran Launches Surprise Attack on US Base, Oil Prices Rebound; SK Hynix Results Weigh on Chip Stocks; Apple, Microsoft and Google Rise Steadily (July 29, 2026)

Bitget UEX Daily｜Iran Launches Surprise Attack on US Base, Oil Prices Rebound; SK Hynix Results Weigh on Chip Stocks; Apple, Microsoft and Google Rise Steadily (July 29, 2026) | Bitget News
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Bitget UEX Daily｜Iran Launches Surprise Attack on US Base, Oil Prices Rebound; SK Hynix Results Weigh on Chip Stocks; Apple, Microsoft and Google Rise Steadily (July 29, 2026)

Bitget UEX Daily｜Iran Launches Surprise Attack on US Base, Oil Prices Rebound; SK Hynix Results Weigh on Chip Stocks; Apple, Microsoft and Google Rise Steadily (July 29, 2026)

Bitget2026/07/29 01:27
By: Bitget
rMSFT0.00%rSKHY0.00%

I. Hot News Highlights

Federal Reserve Developments

Significant Divergence Ahead of Decision, Rate-Hike Expectations Rise

• Federal funds futures open interest surged to a record high (967,000 contracts on Monday), reflecting sharp trader disagreement over the policy path.
• CME data shows a 69.5% probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July and a 30.5% chance of a 25 bp hike; cumulative hike odds rise further by September.
• A Reuters survey shows analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since end-2023, with the 2026 median expectation lowered to $4,509/oz.

Market Impact: Policy uncertainty is supporting the dollar and volatility while pressuring risk assets and reinforcing pricing of sticky inflation and geopolitical risks.

International Commodities

Iran Launches Surprise Attack on US Base, Oil Prices Rebound Sharply

• Iran fired multiple ballistic missiles at a US base in Jordan; all were intercepted. This marks the first Iranian missile attack on a regional US base since the US paused strikes last Friday.
• US Central Command confirmed the attack occurred at 5:45 p.m. ET on July 28; US forces remain on high alert.
• Iran’s deputy foreign minister proposed talks with Oman on temporary Hormuz Strait shipping routes, insisting that the inbound channel must be fully controlled by Iran, or the strait would remain closed and war could resume.

Market Impact: The collapse of the informal ceasefire has lifted the geopolitical risk premium. WTI crude rebounded more than 3%, reigniting near-term supply concerns and intensifying the inflation–policy expectation tug-of-war.

II. Market Recap

Commodities & FX Performance

• Spot Gold: ~$4,015/oz, -0.35%
• Spot Silver: ~$57.2/oz, +0.11%
• WTI Crude: ~$82.6/bbl, +3.12%
• Brent Crude: ~$81.2/bbl, +4.31%
• US Dollar Index (DXY): ~101.39, -0.02%

Driver Analysis: Iran’s attack broke the previous ceasefire expectation and rapidly lifted the crude risk premium, driving WTI higher by more than 3%. Gold and silver came under pressure amid rising oil prices and growing divergence ahead of the Fed decision; the first downward revision of medium-term gold forecasts since late 2023 added further headwinds. The dollar remained relatively firm, reflecting policy uncertainty. The linkage is clear: renewed geopolitical escalation → higher oil → rising inflation concerns → elevated Fed hawkish odds. Near-term commodity volatility will hinge heavily on Hormuz negotiation progress and the FOMC outcome.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: $63,962 (+0.93%)
• ETH: $1,917 (+2.31%)
• Total Crypto Market Cap: ~$2.28 trillion (+0.4%)
• Liquidations (24h): Total ~$372 million, of which longs ~$280 million
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Liquidation pressure is relatively light near the current price (~$63,900). However, the $64,200–$65,000 zone contains a dense cluster of 50x and 100x short liquidations. A break above this area could trigger cascading short stops and fuel further upside. Cumulative short liquidation size above (~$280 million) exceeds long liquidation size below (~$230 million), so short-side pressure remains dominant and the potential volatility on an upside break is slightly larger than on a downside move.

• Spot ETF Flows: BTC spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of ~$11.6 million on July 27; today’s dynamic net inflow is approximately $5.1 million.

Driver Analysis: Renewed geopolitical escalation and pre-FOMC risk-off sentiment had earlier pressured risk assets. The latest rebound in BTC and ETH, together with lighter liquidations, suggests some stabilization. ETF flows remain mixed. Oil-price strength and the FOMC outcome will be the key near-term variables. ETH’s relative strength on the latest session points to selective risk-on rotation within crypto.

US Equity Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at 52,747.32 (+1.03%), supported by strong non-tech earnings
• S&P 500: Closed at 7,428.78 (+0.21%), edged higher
• Nasdaq: Closed at 24,876.91 (-0.22%), weighed by semiconductors

Tech Giants Performance

• NVDA: $197.01 (+0.25%)
• AAPL: $340.08 (+0.94%)
• MSFT: $393.35 (+1.09%)
• GOOGL: $332.60 (+1.85%)
• AMZN: $230.86 (-0.23%)
• META: $593.41 (-0.08%)
• TSLA: $307.44 (-0.58%)

Performance Summary & Driver Analysis: Tech divergence intensified. Apple, Microsoft and Google rose steadily, with Apple having previously overtaken Nvidia as the world’s largest company by market cap. Micron and AMD fell more than 8%, Intel dropped nearly 6%, dragging the Nasdaq and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. AI application software names such as Workday gained more than 8%, while Palantir declined. The overall pattern remains “non-tech and software relatively resilient, hardware and storage under continued pressure,” reflecting ongoing re-pricing of AI capital-expenditure returns.

Sector Moves

Storage Sector – Broad Decline

• Representative stocks: SanDisk down more than 14%, Micron and SK Hynix-related names down nearly 9%, Seagate down more than 8%
• Drivers: Cooling AI storage demand expectations combined with broader chip selling.

Optical Communications – Collective Weakness

• Representative stocks: Corning down more than 12%, Coherent down more than 10%, Lumentum down more than 8%
• Drivers: Followed capital-expenditure concerns and tech-hardware sentiment.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index – Down 4.49%

• Representative stocks: AMD and Micron down more than 8%, Applied Materials and Marvell down nearly 8%
• Drivers: Persistent valuation and return concerns across the AI hardware chain.

III. In-Depth US Stock Analysis

1. Seagate Technology (STX) – Strong Earnings Beat, Rare Bright Spot in Storage Hardware

Event Overview: Fiscal Q4 revenue reached $3.65 billion (+48% YoY), adjusted EPS $5.71, and operating margin 44.6%—all significantly above expectations. The company also raised fiscal Q1 revenue guidance to $4.0–4.2 billion (vs. consensus ~$3.79 billion). Shares jumped more than 9% in after-hours trading. Market Interpretation: Against a backdrop of continued pressure on storage and semiconductors from AI capex-return doubts, Seagate, as a provider of enterprise hard-disk and storage solutions, demonstrated resilient actual demand. The beat shows that certain traditional and enterprise storage needs remain intact and have not been fully overwhelmed by AI expectation resets. The contrast with sharp declines in SanDisk and Micron highlights the split between “earnings deliverers” and “expectation traders” within the sector. Investment Implication: Near-term earnings support is clear, but sustained order visibility and major-customer capex trends must be monitored to confirm demand durability.

2. Micron Technology (MU) – Plunged Nearly 9%, Storage Sentiment Continues to Deteriorate

Event Overview: Shares fell nearly 9%, joining SanDisk (down more than 14%) and AMD in weighing on the storage sector and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX -4.49%). Market Interpretation: Markets are growing more skeptical about the sustainability of the HBM and conventional memory price up-cycle. Earlier AI-server demand expectations had driven storage stocks higher, but capital has clearly rotated out of high-valuation memory names, reflecting a re-pricing of the “linear AI-driven demand growth” narrative. As a sector bellwether, Micron’s decline amplified the overall cautious mood and stood in sharp contrast to Seagate’s beat. Investment Implication: Near-term moves remain sentiment-driven. Closely watch major-customer capex guidance, inventory levels and pricing trends; avoid purely betting on distant AI demand.

3. Apple (AAPL) – Steady Gain, Market-Cap Lead Further Entrenched

Event Overview: Shares rose approximately 0.94% to $340.08. Apple had previously overtaken Nvidia to reclaim the world’s largest market-cap ranking and set a fresh high. Market Interpretation: In an environment of widespread hardware and semiconductor pressure, Apple exhibited a clear certainty premium. Investors prefer its robust free cash flow, ongoing services growth and relatively cautious AI capex approach (favoring leased compute over large-scale self-build). This “certainty-first” preference has made Apple a safe-haven within the volatile market and reinforced the re-pricing toward high-quality growth. Investment Implication: Certainty assets are favored in the current environment. This week’s earnings will further test device and services growth quality as well as AI commercialization progress.

4. Nvidia (NVDA) – Slight Rebound of 0.25%, AI Hardware Sentiment Still Unrepaired

Event Overview: Shares edged up 0.25% to $197.01 after a prior sharp decline driven by AI infrastructure cost concerns and competitive pressure. Market Interpretation: Markets continue to digest the return cycle of massive capital spending, financing structures (including potential large-scale support arrangements related to OpenAI) and intensifying Chinese competition. Although a modest rebound occurred, the magnitude remains limited, indicating that confidence in the “long-term AI infrastructure boom” narrative has not yet recovered. The contrast with Apple’s consolidating market-cap lead further underscores the divergence between hardware and certainty assets. Investment Implication: The long-term AI compute demand thesis remains intact, but near-term valuation and spending pace have entered a stricter scrutiny phase; volatility may stay elevated relative to the broader market.

5. Corning (GLW) – Plunged More Than 12%, Optical Communications Chain Under Clear Pressure

Event Overview: Shares fell more than 12% as the optical communications sector weakened broadly (Coherent down more than 10%, Lumentum down more than 8%). Market Interpretation: As a key supplier of optical communications and advanced materials, Corning is directly exposed to cooling expectations for AI data-center capital spending. Optical module and high-speed interconnect demand is highly leveraged to the spending cadence of cloud providers and hyperscalers. When markets question AI infrastructure returns, upstream materials and equipment segments typically react first. The decline resonated with storage and chip stocks, reinforcing the signal that the broader hardware chain has entered an expectation-reset phase. Investment Implication: The sector remains tightly linked to AI infrastructure and is highly sentiment-sensitive in the near term. Focus on subsequent capex guidance visibility from cloud providers and equipment makers.

6. SK Hynix (SKHY ADR) – Operating Profit Surged 557% but Missed Expectations, ADR Under Pressure

Event Overview: Second-quarter operating profit jumped 557% YoY to a record 60.5 trillion won (approximately $41.6 billion); revenue reached 79 trillion won. Both figures, however, missed market expectations (operating profit consensus ~64 trillion won, revenue ~83.85 trillion won). The company noted that its higher HBM mix prevented it from fully benefiting from the strong conventional memory price up-cycle and plans to significantly expand HBM4 capacity in the second half of 2026. Market Interpretation: Despite record absolute profits, the “miss versus expectations” itself triggered concerns that the AI memory boom may be slowing. The higher HBM weighting became a short-term headwind, illustrating that investors are focused on marginal changes and expectation gaps rather than absolute growth. The result intensified caution across the storage sector and contrasted with Seagate’s beat, highlighting internal divergence within the AI memory chain. Investment Implication: Long-term HBM and advanced memory demand remains supported, but the pace of capacity expansion versus customer demand must be monitored. The combination of “strong growth but miss” may continue to constrain valuation recovery speed.

IV. Market & Project Dynamics

1. Total value locked (TVL) on Ethereum Layer-2 networks has fallen back to approximately $5 billion, the lowest level since 2023, nearly erasing the growth that followed the 2024 launches of Optimism, Arbitrum and ZKsync. Optimistic Rollups (Optimism, Base and Arbitrum) still dominate, accounting for roughly $4.8 billion or 96% of total TVL.
2. Analysts note that any dovish signal from the Fed could benefit Bitcoin. Market disagreement over a potential Wednesday hike is pronounced—CME FedWatch shows a 70% probability of a hold and a 30% chance of a 25 bp surprise hike. Block Scholes analyst Thahbib Rahman observed that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s reduced use of forward guidance has heightened uncertainty, making this FOMC meeting one of the most uncertain in years.
3. SK Hynix stated it plans to significantly expand HBM4 capacity supply in the second half of 2026. It has signed long-term chip supply agreements (LTAs) with 10 major industry customers; expects Q3 2026 DRAM shipments to rise approximately 10% QoQ; and anticipates low-single-digit (1–4%) QoQ growth in NAND shipments. The LTAs incorporate differentiated pricing mechanisms based on customer type and product characteristics to dampen cyclical price volatility and will meaningfully improve medium- to long-term order and demand visibility.
4. According to media reports cited by Jin10, US officials said Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US base in Jordan; the missiles were intercepted by Jordan. This was the first Iranian missile attack on a regional US base since the US paused strikes last Friday. US Central Command confirmed the launch at 5:45 p.m. ET and stated that all missiles were successfully intercepted; US forces remain on high alert. WTI crude extended gains in early Wednesday trading, with the intraday rise expanding to 4%.
5. Bitcoin miner and AI infrastructure company Ionic Digital surged more than 25% on its first day of direct listing on Nasdaq, approaching $63 and implying a valuation of roughly $2.75 billion. The company was formed in January 2024 and holds the majority of mining assets from the Celsius Network bankruptcy restructuring, including mining machines, infrastructure, approximately $195 million in cash and 540 BTC.
6. SK Hynix reported that second-quarter operating profit surged 557% to a record 60.5 trillion won (about $41.62 billion) on strong demand for advanced memory driven by tech giants’ AI data-center investments. The figure, however, missed the 64 trillion won consensus, largely because its higher HBM mix left it less able to benefit from the conventional memory price surge. This intensified concerns that the AI boom powering the semiconductor industry may be slowing. Revenue of 79 trillion won also missed the roughly 84 trillion won expectation. After falling 9% in regular Tuesday trading, the ADR dropped another 9% in after-hours, while SanDisk and Micron also declined more than 4%, erasing the lift from Seagate’s results.
7. According to Cointelegraph, the sharp sell-off in Asian chip stocks pressured US tech shares. Bitcoin briefly broke below $63,000 after the US open on Tuesday, hitting a nearly 10-day low. Market data show Bitcoin’s price action was influenced by the global tech sell-off; the plunge in Asian semiconductors triggered a risk-asset chain reaction that spilled into US markets.

V. Today’s Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Preview

1. ★★★★★ Microsoft, Meta report after the close (key focus on AI capex returns, cloud growth and advertising recovery)
2. ★★★★ Qualcomm, Arm, Robinhood report after the close
3. ★★★★★ SK Hynix Q2 results (critical validation for AI memory/HBM)

1. ★★★★★ Fed rate decision; market expects no change; Chair Warsh holds press conference afterward. Focus on guidance for the future rate path and whether hikes could resume in September amid ongoing inflation and tariff uncertainty
2. ★★★★★ US June core PCE price index, Q2 real GDP annualized QoQ preliminary, weekly initial jobless claims
3. ★★★★★ Apple, Amazon report earnings – testing AI commercialization progress
4. ★★★★ Samsung Electronics full Q2 results (memory and AI chips)
5. ★★★ Coinbase, Strategy report after the close

1. ★★★★ Kioxia reports earnings (final of the Japan-Korea memory trio)
2. US July Chicago PMI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment final

Institutional Views

Analysts generally believe Iran’s attack has broken the ceasefire expectation, rapidly lifting oil prices and heightening inflation concerns, thereby increasing uncertainty around the Fed’s policy path this week. Record federal-funds futures open interest underscores deep market disagreement. Tech hardware and storage remain under pressure, reflecting ongoing re-pricing of AI capital-expenditure returns, while selected non-tech and software earnings have provided support. Crypto had earlier come under pressure amid declining risk appetite and concentrated long liquidations. The broad consensus is that the dual uncertainties of geopolitics and policy will dominate near-term volatility, with the FOMC outcome and mega-cap tech earnings serving as the key pricing anchors.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search and verified by humans for publication only. It does not constitute any investment advice. Data in the text may inevitably contain de

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author’s opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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